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At this moment, two distinctive camps formed on Putin’s intentions. In other words, Russia and the West accuse each other of not respecting the principle of “ indivisible security.” The 130,000 troops placed near Ukraine’s borders were said to have been placed there for the purpose of military drills and exercises.
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Russia has also argued that according to the Charter for European Security, each state is free to choose its alliance so long as it does not strengthen its security at the expense of another state. Though Russia acknowledges this, it has repeatedly argued that according to Article 10 of the NATO Founding Treaty, NATO “may” then accept said nation if it is in the interest of all member states. International legal norms and agreements on the European security architecture posit that every nation has the right to choose any alliance they wish to join and that “spheres of influence” are not acceptable in the post-Cold War international order. For years Putin has vocalized how actions such as these as well as the continued substantial military aid to Ukraine and its eventual accession into NATO are a threat to Russia’s security. Prior to the November movement of troops, other events unfolded including Turkey’s sending of lethal drones to Ukraine which were used to destroy the artillery of pro-Russian separatists, and large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea led by the US, UK and Ukraine. In November 2021, Russia amassed a significant number of troops near its border with Ukraine. Having a better understanding of what motivates leaders and nations is an area that should attract much more attention in order to understand and prevent future wars in this era characterized by growing multipolarity and conflicting interests and values. In addition, the use of non-material theories can further help elucidate the intricacies and nuances of individual nations, leaders and their choices to launch incredibly costly wars. War never occurs in a vacuum and is more often the result of the culmination of grievances and distrust.
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Nevertheless, it is important to try to understand all the factors at play in this situation to gain a more comprehensive understanding of great power competition, civilizational nationalism and identity, leaders and their risk calculus, Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine, and how to ensure stability and peace in a multipolar world. Moreover, the manner through which he is conducting this war reveals much about his lack of regard for human dignity. Putin’s latest actions in Ukraine are deplorable, inexcusable, unprovoked, and worthy of global condemnation. The reality is far less black and white, which helps to explain why many in the academic and policy communities were left in shock when Putin finally pulled the trigger, so to speak. Others among those who foresaw an “imminent invasion” are long-time Russia hawks, deeply mistrustful of Vladimir Putin’s motives and always quick to declare that an act of Russian aggression was around the corner. But assertions of available “intel” predicting an invasion across the media seemed highly abstract to the general population due to the inability of the intelligence community to share specific information or sources. Some of those forecasting the worst-case scenario did so based on information from the intelligence community. Many scholars and policy analysts failed to see this coming, and ultimately, the voices of “hysteria” predicting an all-out invasion proved to be correct. Russia has officially invaded Ukraine – and contrary to how the Russian way of warfare was expected to evolve, it was not through the use of irregular or hybrid tactics, but through conventional military means.
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